Adley Rutschman: An Extension Proposal

Editors note: A version of this article was originally submitted as a final report for SABR's Level Two Analytics Certification. The object of this report was to construct a contract extension proposal for Baltimore Orioles' catcher Adley Rutschman. All statistics and data are as of June 2, 2025.

Since Adley Rutschman’s arrival in Baltimore in 2022, the Orioles have taken flight, enjoying steady contributions from the 27-year-old backstop. Recently, however, Rutschman has hit a roadblock, facing a down year in 2024 and experiencing a similar decline thus far in 2025. 

Given Rutschman’s crucial role the Orioles have also struggled, with a 22-36 record in 2025. Even with 2025’s bleak outlook, the Orioles still have a bright future, with other young stars like Gunnar Henderson contributing alongside Rutschman. As the organization looks toward the future an important question looms: which players will be extended?

(Photo credit: Andy Ziegler via Flickr)

As a key member of the Orioles' core, Adley Rutschman is one of the first to come to mind. One of MLB’s top catchers, even while struggling, he is all too valuable to let go. 

CAREER EVALUATION

Since his debut in May of 2022, Rutschman has generally excelled offensively, with some fluctuations. He began strongly in his debut season, finishing with a .254/.362/.445 slash line in 113 games played, alongside 13 HR, 42 RBI, a 135 wRC+, 5.0 fWAR, and a second-place finish in Rookie of the Year voting.  

The following year he was back at it, appearing in 154 games en route to his first All-Star appearance and Silver Slugger award. In the 2023 season, Rutschman slashed .277/.374/.435 with a 127 wRC+, boosted by 20 HR and 80 RBI, while providing 5.8 fWAR and leading the O’s to a playoff berth.

In 2024 Rutschman slowed, with career lows in AVG, OBP, and SLG after slashing .250/.318/.391. Rutschman also declined in both wRC+ and fWAR, posting just a 104 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. 

While at first glance Rutschman’s 2025 season appears to be a continuation of his regression, a closer look at his advanced metrics challenges that falsehood. Rutschman boasts an elite 94th percentile squared-up rate (34.7%), alongside a -.123 discrepancy between SLG and xSLG, one of MLB’s highest. 

He’s also seen a -.066 discrepancy between wOBA and xWOBA with minimal difference in batted ball distributions from his 2022-23 seasons. Rutschman’s BABIP of .228 reinforces his poor luck, signaling a hopeful turnaround for the switch hitter. 

(Adley Rutchman's Baseballsavant.com page)

On top of his bat, Rutschman exhibited average defense at worst, with high defensive upside. Throughout his career, Rutschman’s defensive strong suit has been blocking. He finished in the 100th percentile in blocking runs above average in 2022 (18), the 87th percentile in 2023 (7), and the 94th percentile in 2024 (10). So far in 2025, Rutschman has contributed 0 blocking runs above average, albeit in a small sample size of 53 games.

While typically a strong blocker, Rutschman has been roughly league average in runners caught stealing, recording 3, 0, and 1 CS above average in 2022-24 respectively. He’s also been inconsistent with framing, having positive value seasons in 2022, 2023, and 2025 so far, while contributing -1 framing runs above average in 2024. 

Additionally, Rutschman has racked up 26 defensive runs saved, although the majority (18) came in his first 762 MLB innings (of 2,907). Even with questions about his defense, he’s been good for 1.5 defensive runs above average already in 2025, while contributing positive values in each year of his career thus far.

EXTENSION PROPOSAL

Considering both Adley Rutschman’s career and the Orioles' future outlook, it would make sense for the Orioles to extend Rutschman beyond his arbitration years. With just over three years of service time, Rutschman won’t reach free agency until after the 2027 season. If I were in Mike Elias’s position, I’d consider a five-year contract, locking Rutschman up through his age 32 season, after which catcher production typically falls off (Read more here).

To determine the typical market value for a catcher, I gathered data from MLB’s 15 highest-paid catchers in 2025, using both free-agent and extension contracts. After filtering out arbitration deals I was left with contracts and fWAR values for 13 catchers.

I chose to use only data from catcher contracts as a result of their shallow position pool, although WAR is an outlet to compare evenly across positions. I found that catchers tend to be paid less than other positional groups, justifying this positional study. 

Data gathered from frontofficesports.com

When gathering data I used each catcher’s three-year average previous to signing their contract to determine the value in $/average catcher fWAR and $/average catcher fWAR per 162. I found that teams paid roughly $6.15M per catcher fWAR and $3.15M per catcher fWAR per 162. 

This discrepancy makes sense, with the majority of catchers splitting time with a backup and not reaching their fWAR/162 estimation. I took an average between monetary estimations for the two values for each catcher ((fWAR x 6.15M + fWAR per 162 x 3.15M)/2) and found that predicted AAV using this method roughly matched actual AAV. 

After measuring the success of this method I determined it would be appropriately used to estimate a monetary extension value for Rutschman. 

By taking Rutschman’s averages from 2022-2024 (4.6 fWAR and 5.4 fWAR per 162), we find that he would be worth $22.7M annually, warranting a five-year $115M contract extension. This deal would make Rutschman MLB’s second highest-paid catcher, which makes sense based on his 2022-2024 contributions.

However, this estimation may be an overvalue given Rutschman’s fWAR decline in 2024 (3.0 fWAR decrease from 2023). As a result, I re-calculated Rutschman’s deserved contract based on his 2023-24 seasons and his 2025 projected season. Using STEAMER‘s projection, roughly 3.0 fWAR by season's end, I found that he would earn about $16M annually, or a five-year $90M contract on the open market.  

Because Rutschman is still arbitration-eligible, I adjusted the AAV of my proposed contract to be higher than arbitration values based on his production, but lower than open market values. I estimated this number to be 75% of his free agent value, and found that offering Rutschman a five-year $60M contract ($12M AAV) would be most beneficial for the Orioles while also increasing Rutschman’s salary beyond arbitration value. This proposal would make Rutschman MLB’s sixth-highest-paid catcher. A deal similar to that of Sean Murphy’s extension makes sense for both sides, especially given Rutschman’s struggles. 

After concluding my study I consulted Spotrac to see how well my estimations stack up. They estimate Rutschman's AAV at a similar value, $13.2M per year, differing just $1.2M annually from my proposed extension. We disagreed on contract length, with Spotrac projecting an 11 year deal for Rutschman in contrast to my five year proposal. Regardless, the foundation of our proposed contracts were similar.

To live up to the contract Rutschman would need to produce about 9.8 fWAR over his five-year contract, or roughly 2.0 fWAR per season. Given Rutschman’s future outlook and past production, reaching this mark isn’t just possible, but it’s likely. If Rutschman could produce an average of 3.0 fWAR per season during the contract, the Orioles will save a surplus of $32M. 

Alongside the contract, I’d offer a $10M signing bonus as an incentivization for Rutschman to stay with the Orioles for two years beyond arbitration. Additionally, I’d include Club options after both the third and fourth year of the contract to serve as a safety in case of a hefty decline on Rutschman's part.

CONCLUSION

After 2025 the Orioles only have $17.5M committed to the books. Adding my proposed contract to retain Rutschman would not reasonably prevent the ownership group from spending on other free agents, or extending more expensive contributors such as Gunnar Henderson. 

With Samuel Basallo knocking on the door as well, it would be unwise to overpay Rutschman. If Rutschman chooses to take the contract, Basallo can slide to an easily replaceable first base position in the Orioles lineup. If Rustchman doesn't accept Basallo can easily slot into the major league catcher role.

If Rutschman’s performance continues at its current 2025 pace, I’d consider it somewhat likely he will accept my extension proposal. On the other hand, if he can get things going and return closer to 2022-23 form, I think he’d demand a greater annual salary.

Ultimately, Rutschman remains a top catcher, ranking eighth in catcher fWAR (0.4) and 10th in wRC+ (86) even while struggling. He’s a hard player to replace at the shallow catcher position. Given his underlying metrics, it's clear Rutschman still has plenty left in the tank, and it would be a grave mistake on the Orioles' part to let him go. 

(Statistics and data found in: baseballsavant.mlb.com, baseball-reference.com, frontofficesports.com, spotrac.com)

Cover photo credit: Maryland GovPics via Flickr