This Former Star Has Quietly Been One of MLB's Unluckiest Hitters in 2025

Editor's note: All statistics are as of the morning of July 5.

Headlines around Juan Soto and Ben Rice have flashed in 2025, with discourse claiming them as some of the unluckiest hitters in the league. While that may be true, not much has been said about Pirates right fielder Bryan Reynolds. A former star, Reynolds has been one of MLB’s unluckiest hitters so far in 2025.

A hitter who’s always been somewhat underappreciated, Reynolds has seen almost all attention fade away after his slow start this year. He’s slashed .235/.301/.381 so far, while contributing -0.3 fWAR. It’s easy to consider Reynolds as one of MLB’s most disappointing players in 2025 given his current production, or lack thereof. His .690 OPS ranks 127th in MLB (of 157 qualified batters), while his below-average 89 wRC+ ranks 133rd. 

Surprisingly though, Reynolds’ quality of contact hasn’t regressed. In fact, he’s hitting the ball the hardest he ever has. So far in 2025, he’s set a new career high with a 91.8 MPH average exit velocity, while barreling the ball 11.5% of the time. Over the course of his seven year career Reynolds has never had a better Hard-Hit% (48.9), while his LA sweet-spot% (49.6) is the best since 2021. 

Reynolds ranks in the 70th percentile or higher in each of those categories, placing among the league's best. His average exit velocity ranks 28th in MLB, and his maximum exit velocity of 112.3 MPH sits at 45th in MLB. He additionally ranks 41st in MLB with 27 barrels. Reynolds’ contact has been loud and hard in 2025, but ultimately, the results haven’t shown. 

The metrics suggest that Reynolds' struggles are the result of poor luck, and his peripherals agree. Reynolds ranks in the 79th percentile or better in xWOBA (.367), xBA (.280), and xSLG (.514), while also ranking 45th overall in xWOBA among qualified MLB hitters. 

The difference between Reynolds’ wOBA (.302) and xWOBA is -0.065 points, good for fifth highest in MLB. The difference between his SLG and xSLG is -0.125 points, fourth highest in MLB. Reynolds ranks slightly lower in difference between BA and xBA, coming in at 15th in MLB with a -0.045 point difference. 

While taking these discrepancies into account, it’s important to acknowledge Reynolds’ batted ball profile as well. An increase in GB% or a decrease in pulled AIR% could be an explainer for his struggles. While there has been a slight decrease in pull AIR% from 2024 to 2025 (15.6% to 14.0%), it isn’t the entire story. The rest of Reynolds' batted ball profile is relatively similar to years past, leaving little to be analyzed. 

An analysis of Reynolds’ batted ball events more clearly showcases his unlucky nature in 2025. So far this season he’s made 54 outs on balls hit 95+ MPH. Of those 54 occasions, 32 were hit 100+ MPH, and 22 traveled 300+ feet. Contact of that nature typically results in extra-base hits, but in Reynolds’ case resulted in outs. While the numbers tell a story, it’s easier to visualize some of the ridiculous outs Reynolds has hit into. 

On May 21, Reynolds blasted a 389-foot flyout to center field off of Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer. Coming off a slider, the flyout was hit 105.7 MPH to straightaway center field at a 26° launch angle. TJ Friedl tracked the ball down and made a stellar jumping catch, before running into the Pirates’ center field wall. 

On June 1, Reynolds grounded a cutter from Randy Vasquez to the right side, where Luis Arraez made an excellent sliding stop. The grounder was hit at 95.5 MPH and looked to be a surefire hit until Arraez took it away.

Later that month on June 9, Reynolds smacked a flyout into the right field corner off an Eury Perez curveball. Reynolds hit the ball at 93.3 MPH, which traveled 315 feet before landing into Jesús Sánchez's outstretched glove on a stellar running play. 

While those are some of the more extreme examples, there have been plenty of instances where Reynolds has just hit the ball hard right at a fielder. Excellent defensive plays like the three above don’t help, but they also are unlikely to continue at the rate they are right now.

The data strongly suggests luck as the primary factor for Reynolds' struggles; poor luck that is. While it may be frustrating to see outs made on well hit balls from Reynolds, that trend is unsustainable. With the quality of contact he’s making, there’s no doubt he'll heat up in the second half.

(Statistics found via: baseballsavant.com, fangraphs.com, baseball-reference.com, mlb.com)

(Video found in: mlb.com)

Cover photo credit: Johnmaxmena2 via Wikimedia